Key Questions
How does multi-decadal climate variability modulate the forecast skill of climate predictions?
Background
Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at operational meteorological centres around the world. A crucial component of any seasonal forecast system is the set of retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, from past years that are used to estimate skill and to calibrate the forecasts. This project will look into the variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice climate system during the 20th Century which was characterised by complex variations linked to natural variability (internal and external) as well as anthropogenic forcings.
Aims of the Project
A key aim of the project will be to link the multi-decadal climate variability as seen in observational datasets with the fluctuations that state-of-the-art climate forecast models used in operational seasonal forecasts exhibit.
Project Description
This project will look into the variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice climate system during the 20th Century which was characterised by complex variations linked to natural variability (internal and external) as well as anthropogenic forcings. A key aim of the project will be to link the multi-decadal climate variability as seen in observational datasets with the fluctuations that state-of-the-art climate forecast models used in operational seasonal forecasts exhibit. Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at operational meteorological centres around the world. A crucial component of any seasonal forecast system is the set of retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, from past years that are used to estimate skill and to calibrate the forecasts. You will be working with a new hindcast data set called Coupled Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (CSF-20C) to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms in the atmosphere, ocean and sea-ice responsible for the low-frequency modulations of forecast skill that have been found in these hindcasts. Further reading: Weisheimer, A., D. Befort, D. MacLeod, T.N. Palmer, C. O'Reilly and K. Strommen (2020). Seasonal forecasts of the 20th Century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 101(8): E1413-E1426, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0019.1. and references therein
Methods to be used
You will be working with a new hindcast data set from a complex climate model called Coupled Seasonal Forecasts of the 20th Century (CSF-20C). Potential options for your own modelling experiments can be included.
Specialised skills required
The project requires strong analytical skills in Physics, Mathematics, Meteorology, Environmental sciences or related disciplines and a high level of curiosity to explore the marvels of nature. In return, it offers a wide range of opportunities and applications in the broad field of weather and climate predictions.
Please contact Antje Weisheimer on Antje.Weisheimer@physics.ox.ac.uk if you are interested in this project
