Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics - Clarendon Laboratory
All weather and climate predictions are produced using computer simulators of the atmosphere. As a society, we rely on these predictions to make decisions, from considering whether to take an umbrella out with us today, to developing policies that will improve our society’s resilience to climate change. There are many sources of error in our forecast models so we must take a probabilistic approach: my research is concerned with developing techniques to improve our probabilistic forecasts, through representing uncertainty in our atmospheric simulators. Any projects under this overarching theme would be developed in discussion with the student, but could involve the use of extremely high-resolution simulations to understand uncertainty in small-scale processes; investigation into sources of predictability such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation; or atmospheric model development, with the potential for developments to be incorporated into world leading weather and climate models. The student would use a range of techniques, from modelling simple chaotic systems to global climate simulations, with the aim of understanding the behaviour of our current forecast models, and developing ways to improve them.
Associated Research Streams
weather forecasting, climate modelling, uncertainty, stochastic processes, predictability and chaos, computer models
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Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics